William McComb, Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
Jack Ahern, Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
Paul K. Barten, Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
David R. Foster, Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA
Jay Hestbeck, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Hadley, MA
Keith H. Nislow, US Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Amherst, MA
David B. Kittredge, Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
Robert Ryan, Department of Landscape Architecture and Regional Planning University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003
Cleve Willis, Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003

Project Summary -- Proposal Section A

The population of the United States is expected to double in the next 100 years. The northeastern United States is dominated by private lands that have seen increased levels of development of single residence housing and the support infrastructure that is typical of expanding suburbia (roads, schools, malls, etc.). On average, every day 18 ha of forest and agricultural lands are converted to residential and industrial development in Massachusetts. Over the next 100 years we will see increased pressure on these landscapes for residential development, while still expecting the landscapes to provide clean water, habitat for resident plants and animals, recreational opportunities, and economic sustainability for the growing communities. In addition, between 1950 and 1990, although the population of Massachusetts increased by 28%, the area of developed land increased by nearly 200% (Massachusetts Audubon 1999).

This integrated research project will model the spatial patterns, evolution, and function of watersheds dominated by private owners of many land parcels. The modeling approach will specifically consider interactions among social, biological, and physical systems within 9 sub-watersheds of the Connecticut River Valley over a 100-year projection period. The nine sub-watersheds will represent areas of 10,000-30,000 ha and represent three replicates each of watersheds (1) currently dominated by urban systems, (2) currently dominated by agricultural systems, and (3) currently dominated by forested systems. The heart of the modeling framework that will be applied to each watershed is a spatial representation of landscape structure and composition at each of 10 decades as projected forward under current or alterna

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